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image=”11901″ img_size=”large” alignment=”center” style=”vc_box_outline” border_color=”sky” css_animation=”slideInUp”][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1586929798779{padding-right: 100px !important;padding-left: 100px !important;}”]<\/p>\n \u70ba\u4e86\u89e3\u6c7a\u8def\u6bb5\u58c5\u585e\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6848\u5982\u4e0a\u5716\u6240\u793a\u3002\u6b64\u67b6\u69cb\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e09\u500b\u6b65\u9a5f\uff1a<\/p>\n (\u4e00) \u8cc7\u6599\u524d\u8655\u7406<\/p>\n (\u4e8c) \u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578b\u5efa\u7acb<\/p>\n (\u4e09) \u8cc7\u6599\u5831\u8868\u7cfb\u7d71<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner][vc_custom_heading text=”(1)\u8cc7\u6599\u524d\u8655\u7406” font_container=”tag:h4|text_align:left” text_resize=”yes” use_theme_fonts=”yes” css_animation=”bounceIn” css=”.vc_custom_1586932047608{padding-right: 100px !important;padding-left: 90px !important;}”][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1587093386584{padding-left: 100px !important;}”]\u8cc7\u6599\u662f\u4f86\u81ea\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u4ea4\u901a\u5c40\u4ea4\u63a7\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6240\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e4b\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u96c6\u5171\u4e09\u500b\u6708\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u8cc7\u6599\u8868\u5982\u4e0b \uff1a[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1586932082342{padding-left: 100px !important;}”]\u516c\u8eca\u8ecc\u8de1\u4e2d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6b04\u4f4d\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/strong>[\/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”11903″ img_size=”medium” alignment=”center” style=”vc_box_outline” border_color=”orange” css_animation=”right-to-left”][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1587093416214{padding-left: 100px !important;}”]\u8def\u6bb5\u901f\u5ea6\u4e2d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6b04\u4f4d\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/strong>[\/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”11904″ img_size=”medium” alignment=”center” style=”vc_box_outline” border_color=”orange” css_animation=”right-to-left”][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner][vc_custom_heading text=”(2)\u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578b\u5efa\u7acb” font_container=”tag:h4|text_align:left” text_resize=”yes” use_theme_fonts=”yes” css_animation=”bounceIn” css=”.vc_custom_1586930811988{padding-right: 100px !important;padding-left: 100px !important;}”][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1586932123812{padding-left: 100px !important;}”]\u4e00\u500b\u8def\u6bb5\u58c5\u585e\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6b64\u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u542b\u5169\u500b\u6a21\u7d44\uff1a\u8def\u6bb5\u901f\u5ea6\u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u58c5\u585e\u7b49\u7d1a\u8a08\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u5728\u8cc7\u6599\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5b78\u9580\u4e0a\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u6642\u9593\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u554f\u984c\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u9810\u6e2c\u554f\u984c\u7684\u89e3\u6cd5\u6709\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u6709 ARIMA\u3001ETS\u3001TBATS \u7b49\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u6709\u5176\u65e2\u6709\u7684\u7f3a\u9ede\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1aARIMA \u7121\u6cd5\u8f03\u597d\u7684\u6355\u6349\u5230\u6642\u9593\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u9031\u671f\u6027\u3001ETS \u548c TBATS \u5247\u8f03\u7121\u6cd5\u6355\u6349\u5230\u8f03\u9577\u6642\u9593\u7684\u9031\u671f\u6027\u7b49\u3002\u7136\u800c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u65b9\u5f0f\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7f3a\u9ede\u4e43\u662f\u5728\u8abf\u6574\u53c3\u6578\u6642\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u8cc7\u6599\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u54e1\u5c07\u9020\u6210\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u8abf\u6574\u56f0\u64fe\u3002<\/p>\n \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u672c\u6b21\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u63a1\u7528\u6642\u9593\u5e8f\u5217\u5206\u89e3\u548c Curve-Fitting \u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f86\u9032\u884c\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u5728\u6642\u9593 t \u4e2d\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u503c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u89e3\u6210\u6578\u500b\u9805\u76f8\u52a0\u6240\u69cb\u6210\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u6c42\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u51fd\u6578 y(t)\u4f86\u9810\u6e2c\u6642\u9593\u5e8f\u5217\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u503c\u70ba\u4f55\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u63a1\u7528 generalized additive model \u5c07\u9810\u6e2c\u901f\u5ea6\u503c y(t)\u5206\u89e3\u6210\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\uff1a[\/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”11907″ img_size=”medium” alignment=”center” css=”.vc_custom_1586932272439{padding-left: 100px !important;}”][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner][vc_custom_heading text=”(3) \u8cc7\u6599\u5831\u8868\u7cfb\u7d71” font_container=”tag:h4|text_align:left” text_resize=”yes” use_theme_fonts=”yes” css_animation=”bounceIn” css=”.vc_custom_1586931049032{padding-right: 100px !important;padding-left: 100px !important;}”][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1586932262115{padding-left: 100px !important;}”]\u4ee5\u4e0b\u70ba\u6a21\u578b\u8a13\u7df4\u5f8c\u7684\u8996\u89ba\u5316:[\/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”11908″ img_size=”full” alignment=”center”][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n \u6a21\u578b\u8a13\u7df4\u8207\u9810\u6e2c\u4e4b\u8996\u89ba\u5316<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”11909″ img_size=”full” alignment=”center”][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n \u8da8\u52e2\u6027\u548c\u9031\u671f\u6027<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”11910″ img_size=”full” alignment=”center”][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n \u67d0\u8def\u6bb5\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u5e73\u5747\u8aa4\u5dee<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1586932161852{padding-left: 100px !important;}”]<\/p>\n \u9810\u6e2c\u8996\u89ba\u5316\u4e4b\u4e92\u52d5\u5f0f\u5730\u5716<\/strong><\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1586932252258{padding-left: 100px !important;}”]<\/p>\n 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\u9810\u6e2c\u8996\u89ba\u5316\u4e4b\u4e92\u52d5\u5f0f\u5730\u5716<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=”.vc_custom_1586329010058{padding-top: 30px !important;padding-right: 30px !important;padding-bottom: 30px !important;padding-left: 30px !important;background-color: #e0e0e0 !important;border-radius: 2px !important;}”][vc_column][vc_custom_heading text=”\u7d50\u8ad6\u8207\u672a\u4f86\u5c55\u671b” font_container=”tag:h4|text_align:center” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n \u57fa\u65bc\u516c\u8eca\u8def\u7dda\u56fa\u5b9a\u4ee5\u53ca\u5177\u6709\u9031\u671f\u6027\u7684\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5229\u7528\u516c\u8eca\u7684\u8ecc\u8de1\u8cc7\u6599\u5efa\u7acb\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u8def\u6bb5\u7684\u516c\u8eca\u901f\u5ea6\u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578b\uff0c<\/p>\n 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css=”.vc_custom_1586329023029{margin-right: 10px !important;padding-top: 30px !important;padding-right: 30px !important;padding-bottom: 30px !important;padding-left: 30px !important;}”][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n (2) \u5229\u7528\u58c5\u585e\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4f86\u9032\u884c\u8abf\u63a7\u865f\u8a8c\u5f8c\u7684\u6210\u6548\u9810\u4f30<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n 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